Make better decisions. First-order thinking vs second-order thinking.
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About me
My name is Mauro Bagnato and for over 15 years I have been leading tech organizations.
When I first stepped into leadership, I believed technical expertise was the key to being an effective leader. However, I quickly learned that organizations are living and complex systems and that leading them demands much more than just technical know-how. I believe that curiosity is at the heart of effective leadership. This is what fuels learning and experimentation, both crucial for continuous improvement. This blog aims to explore engineering leadership in all its aspects and to provide insights in a tangible and pragmatic manner. It will also be a space where I will share insights, reflections, and personal takeaways from books, podcasts, and articles that influenced and keep influencing my journey.
Find out how I can help you!
Understanding first-order thinking.
First-order thinking is a decision-making approach that focuses on the immediate outcomes of our actions.
It is fast and easy and often draws on:
short-term emotions
past experiences
instincts
biases
First-order thinking is essential for handling the thousands of low-stakes or time-constrained decisions we face each day.
However, applying first-order thinking to more complex decisions can lead to oversimplification.
For example, deciding to cut (quality) corners to meet deadlines is an example of first-order thinking. The decision, in fact, only focuses on the most immediate impact.
Understanding second-order thinking.
Second-order thinking is a decision-making approach focusing on the wider implications and the potential ripple effects of our decisions.
It is like looking two or three moves ahead.
Second-order thinking is slower and more effortful because it demands more attention, effort, and time.
One simple yet effective way to force ourselves into second-order thinking is to ask ourselves:
What happens then?
Cutting too many corners to meet deadlines seems like a quick fix but…what happens then?
The second-order impacts could be product reliability, customer trust, and ultimately, the company’s reputation in the long run!
The takeaway.
Second-order thinking helps us craft better decisions and transition from a reactive to a strategic mindset. It requires more effort so it makes sense to use it when stakes are higher.
